World War III

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Raid
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Re: World War III

Postby Raid » Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:45 pm

Dr@gon-UK wrote:
Edwin wrote:Estonia is in NATO and the EU so we'd be double obliged to help out.


Very interesting programme on BBC2 in the last week or so "Inside the war room" with ex-defence ministers and military advisors etc. where they took actions as a war council with just that sort of scenario. Was sobering to watch, especially when the Russians used a tactical nuke on US warships. You could see events going to hell in a handbasket quickly.

I have a morbid fascination with nuclear weapons and their use, so I tracked that down on iPlayer (full title is "This World - World War Three: Inside the War Room" for anyone else interested), and it's scary how plausible it is. I'd like to think however that Putin isn't stupid enough to jump straight to nuclear weapons, but the programme suggests that Russian military doctrine considers their use as an extension of standard practices, rather than a special case as I understand it is in the west.

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Re: World War III

Postby Achtung Englander » Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:24 pm

I am not saying Trump is like Hitler but fringe parties are never funny when the controversial things they say starts to get mass appeal. Hitler in the early 30s was seen as a joke until people stopped laughing and started paying attention to the guy in 1936 when he became the German Chancellor. 3 years later he marched on Poland and we declared war.

Today the situation is worse (because of nuclear weapons) and better (because of nuclear weapons). The fact we survived the Cold War especially when it almost went hot back in 1984 (you younglins won't remember) is a testament that cooler heads prevailed. It is better because of MAD but MAD only works if you believe in it. The second you don't than world security is at threat

Will we have cooler heads in 2017 onwards ?.

Trump, unlike Obama, is goal orientated, which means he works to get a result. He does not believe, like Obama, that sticking your head in the sand and hoping the problem goes away is a solution.

If you want to know why I am scared, I grew up in the 1980s and I saw Threads. My dad was never really scared of much but I recall he quite literally shit his pants when he saw that drama and this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCTKcd2Ko98

(WARNING - do not watch if you want to sleep at night)

At the end of the day we all die, at best we have 90 years, and the planet could not give 2 shits about the Human race - it seen it all before. It is the fact that I would like my kid to grow up in a world where we have better politicians.

On a side note what is happening in America is bizarre - Sanders is more left than Clinton. So if it is a Sanders v Trump that means it is hard left v hard right with little in the centre.

People who support the campaign against the 1% seem to find a peculiar choice with Trump because he is in the 0.01%. Trump is not their friend, so the fact the everyman American is supporting him tells me that they dazzled by his hyperbole than more for what he stands for. Does that remind you of a moustached man from Germany (origin Austria)
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Re: World War III

Postby Achtung Englander » Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:33 pm

Raid wrote:
Dr@gon-UK wrote:
Edwin wrote:Estonia is in NATO and the EU so we'd be double obliged to help out.


Very interesting programme on BBC2 in the last week or so "Inside the war room" with ex-defence ministers and military advisors etc. where they took actions as a war council with just that sort of scenario. Was sobering to watch, especially when the Russians used a tactical nuke on US warships. You could see events going to hell in a handbasket quickly.

I have a morbid fascination with nuclear weapons and their use, so I tracked that down on iPlayer (full title is "This World - World War Three: Inside the War Room" for anyone else interested), and it's scary how plausible it is. I'd like to think however that Putin isn't stupid enough to jump straight to nuclear weapons, but the programme suggests that Russian military doctrine considers their use as an extension of standard practices, rather than a special case as I understand it is in the west.


The fact is Russia feels threatened by NATO which broke the 1991 agreement it had with Yeltsin that when the Warsaw Pact was abolished it would not seek expansion into eastern europe. It has. It broke that promise and so Russia will be surrounded by an moat of NATO countries.

Swap the scenario.

NATO is abolished and the Warsaw Pact seeks to recruit Mexico and Canada who want to join

What do you think the President of America will do ?

Putin invaded Ukraine to basically stick 2 fingers to NATO and say - you want to expand, so can we
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Raid
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Re: World War III

Postby Raid » Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:50 pm

Achtung Englander wrote:If you want to know why I am scared, I grew up in the 1980s and I saw Threads. My dad was never really scared of much but I recall he quite literally shit his pants when he saw that drama and this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCTKcd2Ko98

(WARNING - do not watch if you want to sleep at night)

We were shown the attack scene from The Day After in a history lesson when I was in secondary school. I can't imagine how watching that at a time where it was a very real possibility would have affected someone.

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Re: World War III

Postby Achtung Englander » Thu Feb 11, 2016 4:53 pm

Threads is the only film that scares me till this day. Horror films like ghost films and monsters are scary for being silly, this film is absolutely frightening because it could actually happen . It is also much scarier and realistic than The Day After. I really do not recommend seeing it if you want to sleep
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Re: World War III

Postby Mantis » Thu Feb 11, 2016 5:10 pm

At the end of the day, if it happens there's diddly squat you can do about it. So it's not even really worth thinking about the hypothetical scenarios if it's just going to stress you out.

It'd take a couple of hundred nukes to blanket bomb the entire of the UK with Russia's current arsenal anyway, I don't think they have anywhere near the capability of deploying that many in quick succession. Chances are if you didn't live in the south you'd be reasonably safe from instant death.

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Re: World War III

Postby Raid » Thu Feb 11, 2016 5:33 pm

I live less than 10 miles from two nuclear power plants, which would almost certainly be secondary targets. I'd be dead, and quite frankly, probably better off.

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Re: World War III

Postby Achtung Englander » Thu Feb 11, 2016 5:49 pm

yep !
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Re: World War III

Postby DjchunKfunK » Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:02 pm

You guys all worry too much.
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Re: World War III

Postby Lee » Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:07 pm

DjchunKfunK wrote:
Lee wrote:I don't know Jez they did put in Bush and Obama so why not Trump :lol:


Personally I am enjoying the whole thing as a funny carnival delight :)


The second Bush despite his issues had cross-party appeal and it was Cheney and his gang who did the real damage there and I don't see how Obama is anything like Trump.


I never said he was like Trump but Obama was elected on his promises of changes etc etc and became a big disappointment in doing zilch once in.

It's all hype and saying stuff to get in then doing the opposite with these idiots, you know politicians in a nutshell :P
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Re: World War III

Postby Mantis » Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:10 pm

Raid wrote:
Dr@gon-UK wrote:
Edwin wrote:Estonia is in NATO and the EU so we'd be double obliged to help out.


Very interesting programme on BBC2 in the last week or so "Inside the war room" with ex-defence ministers and military advisors etc. where they took actions as a war council with just that sort of scenario. Was sobering to watch, especially when the Russians used a tactical nuke on US warships. You could see events going to hell in a handbasket quickly.

I have a morbid fascination with nuclear weapons and their use, so I tracked that down on iPlayer (full title is "This World - World War Three: Inside the War Room" for anyone else interested), and it's scary how plausible it is. I'd like to think however that Putin isn't stupid enough to jump straight to nuclear weapons, but the programme suggests that Russian military doctrine considers their use as an extension of standard practices, rather than a special case as I understand it is in the west.


Just watched this out of curiosity. It's quite a well done show, very chilling towards the end and interesting to see how war games events play out. The whole concept of a 'de-escalation' strike is quite new in Russian military doctrine and a scary concept, but it's nothing more than empty rhetoric really; the key use of them is still for large-scale retaliatory strikes.

Makes you wonder how crazy some leaders are though if they can seriously back the idea of using tactical nuclear weapons to dissuade further aggression. It might have worked in WW2 but once other nations started getting their hands on the bomb the whole game changed. There's no way that wouldn't lead to a retaliation.

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Re: World War III

Postby Edwin » Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:39 am

I haven't watched the show but I really don't think the Russians would jump to nuclear weapons unless they were being invaded and even then they still might not use them even if ordered to. I read about a Russian commander of a missile silo in the cold war who saw on all his instruments that the Americans had launched nukes at Russia but still decided not to retaliate. Given how much more educated people are (on both sides) and our access to information about nuclear weapons and their effects I'm not sure any soldier would push the button that destroys the world all just to win a war over Estonia.

Theoretical war games are often a lot of dick waving by people who've never even been in a fight. When anything similar happens in real life, like Turkey shooting down a Russian jet, both sides moved to de-escalate the situation immediately rather than running for the nukes. The Russians moved some military vehicles to the Estonian border at one point back when Ukraine was in the news, NATO increased defences in the area and the Russians withdrew, perhaps realising that a few patches of eastern Europe just aren't worth a massive world ending war.
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Re: World War III

Postby Wrathbone » Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:43 am

Raid wrote:I live less than 10 miles from two nuclear power plants, which would almost certainly be secondary targets. I'd be dead, and quite frankly, probably better off.


Yeah, I discovered a few years ago that our office has a contingency plan in case Heysham plant goes 'bad', due to meltdown or attack or whatever. Basically we get some bromide pills and wait to die. Yaaaay! :lol:
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Re: World War III

Postby Achtung Englander » Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:40 am

Edwin wrote:I haven't watched the show but I really don't think the Russians would jump to nuclear weapons unless they were being invaded and even then they still might not use them even if ordered to. I read about a Russian commander of a missile silo in the cold war who saw on all his instruments that the Americans had launched nukes at Russia but still decided not to retaliate. Given how much more educated people are (on both sides) and our access to information about nuclear weapons and their effects I'm not sure any soldier would push the button that destroys the world all just to win a war over Estonia.

Theoretical war games are often a lot of dick waving by people who've never even been in a fight. When anything similar happens in real life, like Turkey shooting down a Russian jet, both sides moved to de-escalate the situation immediately rather than running for the nukes. The Russians moved some military vehicles to the Estonian border at one point back when Ukraine was in the news, NATO increased defences in the area and the Russians withdrew, perhaps realising that a few patches of eastern Europe just aren't worth a massive world ending war.


very nicely put

We have lived in fortune times when politicians are not gagging for it but we only we have unlucky once
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Re: World War III

Postby Raid » Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:33 pm

A slightly more lighthearted view on terrifying atomic death and the incompetent people in charge:

If you'll excuse me, I'm going to work out which room of my house would make the best fallout shelter.

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