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Girdag's Betting Adventures

PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:31 pm
by Girdag
Well, seeing as the new Premiership season is coming up, I thought I'd embark on a little flutter. I'm putting £20 into Betfair (which might activate a promo offer if I remember correctly, no worries if not) for betting on the football this season as an ongoing thing. I won't put any more money in, and will take the balance out at the end of the season, if there is any. This is more of a bit of fun than a genuine attempt at making money, but I'll try and judge my bets seriously.

I don't want to wager more than £10 per weekend, and seeing as the minimum bet is £2, that's 5 bets per weekend maximum. And no more than 2 bets per match, to spread things a little.

And, to make things interesting, thought I'd post my bets and reasoning on here, so you can cheer me on/yell at me.

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So...first week's bets are...

Bolton vs Stoke - Final score 0-0 (10.5, and I could see this being a bore draw)

Everton vs Blackburn - Blackburn Win (4.1, pretty decent chance of an upset here, I'd say)

West Ham vs Wigan - Final score 0-0 (11, which seems a pretty good bet)

Aston Villa vs Man City - Man City Win (4.2, again a decent chance of an upset)

Betting £2 on each.

That's 4 bets, if any of them are winners, then I at least make my money back. If one of the 0-0s hits, I'll have made a profit of over £12.

Wish me luck!

PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:38 pm
by Feet
The only result I can see happening there is the West Ham - Wigan score draw.

It's hard to bet on the first game or two of the season cause you haven't got the previous weeks form to educate your bet.

PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:40 pm
by Girdag
Yeah, I might go for 'safer' bets next week, but it feels a bit boring just betting on Man U and Chelsea to win ¬_¬

PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:54 pm
by NightShade
Don't do it, seriously, don't do it. You may think you don't have an addictive personality but you do. I speak from painful past (and present ¬.¬) experience :cry:

Also, betting on lots of games separately for the lose, do the accumulators you coward! ¬.¬

PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:29 pm
by Girdag
So...after week one...

Bets:

Bolton vs Stoke - Final score 0-0 - LOST

West Ham vs Wigan - Final score 0-0 LOST

Everton vs Blackburn - Blackburn Win WON

Aston Villa vs Man City - Man City Win LOST

Manchester United vs Newcastle - Man United Win LOST

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Balance before this week - £20

New balance - £17.89

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I lost £2.11, but I reckon I learnt a decent bit. Firstly, I've decided betting on the score is a bit too much of a crapshoot - too many available options, so even when the odds are longer than the actual probability, it'll take a while to pay off. Also, betting on 'dead certs' also seems a bit foolish, I lost the £2 I slapped on Man U, and it wouldn't have brought a great return.

I think betting on results could the way to go - outside wins with odds of 4x or greater, or going for the draw when I think it's a definite possibility that a defending team could hold superior opposition should have a pretty decent rate of return.

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Only placed one bet so far this week, that's for Middlesborough to beat Liverpool - Liverpool's win wasn't entirely convincing, neither was their European performance, and the Boro played damn well to beat Spurs, it's an outside chance, true, but the odds were a ridiculous 9.2, which seems very long to me, so got in before they narrowed. I'll wait a bit for team news etc for other games.

PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 9:14 am
by Captain Hogan
your wasting your time betting on scores, as there's far far less chance of them happening, but the odds only improve by 10 - 15% over betting on a result (well when it's a realistic score line)

I'm going to do something similar. Every week I'm going to put a £1 accumulator on the football ;)

PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:30 am
by JonB
Is there an online accumulator you can do? I don't really like going into proper bookies.

PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:47 am
by NightShade
On about every gambling site everywhere ¬.¬

PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:39 am
by Captain Hogan
put ladbrokes, william hill, etc, etc into google.

PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:18 pm
by RCHD
Should've had faith in your own team Girdag.

*Tuts*

PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:56 pm
by Girdag
Captain Hogan wrote:your wasting your time betting on scores, as there's far far less chance of them happening, but the odds only improve by 10 - 15% over betting on a result (well when it's a realistic score line)

Nah, the odds are better than that - you can generally get about 6x-10x your stake for anything from 0-0 to 2-1 either way, it's just a bit too random to be anything you can bank on.

JonB - Use Betfair, tbh, as you're betting against other people, rather than the bookies, you often get better odds, and the site is incredibly easy to use.

Currently tempted to bet on Sunderland to draw with Tottenham (Sunderland played well against Liverpool, and Tottenham aren't 100% convincing), and Aston Villa to beat Stoke (should be a relatively safe bet, and looks like I could nearly double my money).

PostPosted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:37 pm
by Girdag
Right, whacked £3 on an accumulator for Aston Villa (vs Stoke), Chelsea (vs Wigan) and Arsenal (vs Fulham) to all win, at odds of 3.75. I reckon that's a fairly good bet, I'd be surprised if any of those ended up as an upset.

Think that's probably enough for this week, though I might be tempted to have a last-minute punt on Guttierez (or however you spell it) to score if the odds are nice.

PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 11:14 am
by Girdag
Fucking sweet, that £3 bet was enough to give me a £25 bonus.

Current balance stands at £42.89, with £5 worth of bets made so far this week. If I get above £50, I'll take out the £25, so at least I'll not have lost any money on this foolishness.

EDIT: Withdrew £20. Current balance £22.89, and I've now not gained or lost any money.

PostPosted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 10:19 am
by Captain Bassoon
GJ calling Stoke/Villa and Arsenal/Fulham ;)

PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:44 am
by Girdag
>_<

Right, current balance is £15.89

For next weekend, bets are:

Hull and Sunderland to both win (5x)
Everton and Liverpool to both win (4.5x)
Chelsea, Everton and Sunderland to all win (5.6x)

£2 on the doubles, £4 on the triple.